December 29, 2023
January 2024 EVENTS
In November OPEC agreed to extend its existing supply cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2024. It also agreed to reduce production on a voluntary basis (Saudi Arabia and Russia) by an additional 1.4 mln bpd. The cuts come into force from January 1st 2024.
Possible Influence: Volatile Crude Oil, Gasoline
December’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to print 47.1. The previous print was 46.7.
Possible influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The Unemployment rate for December is expected to print at 3.8%. The previous month had unemployment at 3.7%. Non-Farm Payrolls for December are expected to come in at 158,000 Nonfarm Payrolls for the previous month printed 199,000.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 4%, Year-over-Year in November. Top-line CPI for November came in at 3.1%, as expected.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
Presidential and general elections will be held in Taiwan, China. The result will be closely watched in the United States and China who are at loggerheads over the province. The ruling pro-independence (and pro West) Democratic Progressive Party) will go up against the opposition Kuomintang party, which is closer to China.
The meeting will be themed “rebuilding trust” and will be attended by global leaders and leading business people of multiple countries and members of international organizations. Subjects to be discussed include the Middle East, Artificial Intelligence, Energy and Climate.
Possible Influence: Volatile commodities and US stocks
Retail Sales grew by 0.3%, Month-over-Month, in November, which was higher than expected by the market.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The Bank of Japan will meet to set its interest rates. The current rate is -0.10%. Analysts say there is a good chance the bank may increase interest rates in 2024, but most believe there will be no change at January’s meeting
Possible Influence: Volatile Japanese Yen
The European Central Bank will meet to discuss interest rates. They are currently at 4.5%.
Possible Influence: Volatile Euro and European Stocks
The U.S. Central Bank’s 2-day meeting concludes on January 31st. They will announce their latest interest rate decision and hold a press conference after to discuss their outlook moving forward as well as their plans for adjustments to their balance sheet. The current rate is 5.5%. Rates were unchanged at their last meeting In December.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Dollar, Gold and US Stocks
The 4th Quarter earnings season kicks off in January with the big banks among the first to declare their results.
Possible Influence: Volatile US Stocks
ISRAEL EXPANDED GROUND INCURSION IN GAZA (SECOND PHASE OF THE WAR). Israel resumed its operations in Gaza and Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea and the risk of escalation continues.